Championship · Matchweek 12
Sheffield United
SHU
Derby County
DER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sheff Utd49%
Draw25%
Derby26%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.21
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.6%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Derby will have the ball; Sheff Utd will not mind.
40%Possession58%
38%Territory51%
26%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.06
6.8%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sheff Utd, 3 for Derby. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 39 of 83 matches, not the full season.