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Belgian Pro League · Matchweek 10

Lommel

LOM

Gent

GEN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lommel29%
Draw29%
Gent42%

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.34

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1113.0%
  • 0112.1%
  • 0010.0%
  • 109.6%
  • 128.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession42%
28%Territory32%
24%From set plays36%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.9%Directness8.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lommel, 4 for Gent. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 54 matches, not the full season.