Swiss Super League · Matchweek 15
Luzern
LUZ
Lugano
LUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Luzern28%
Draw27%
Lugano45%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.54
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
53%Possession44%
39%Territory41%
31%From set plays8%
0.09Chance quality0.10
6.0%Directness8.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Luzern, 2 for Lugano. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 12 of 72 matches, not the full season.