Swiss Super League · Matchweek 14
Basel
BAS
Luzern
LUZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Basel45%
Draw28%
Luzern26%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.04
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
61%Possession53%
50%Territory39%
40%From set plays31%
0.06Chance quality0.09
4.1%Directness6.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Basel, 2 for Luzern. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 12 of 72 matches, not the full season.