Swiss Super League · Matchweek 11
Thun
THU
Lugano
LUG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Thun33%
Draw28%
Lugano38%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.37
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.4%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession54%
41%Territory37%
27%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.10
8.4%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Thun, 5 for Lugano.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 48 matches, not the full season.