Ligue 2 · Matchweek 26
Pau
PAU
Montpellier
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pau40%
Draw26%
Montpellier34%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.47
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Montpellier will have the ball; Pau will not mind.
45%Possession61%
33%Territory30%
24%From set plays7%
0.15Chance quality0.15
7.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pau, 3 for Montpellier. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.