Ligue 2 · Matchweek 23
Nantes
NAN
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nantes32%
Draw27%
Pau42%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.54
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession45%
34%Territory33%
31%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.15
6.1%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nantes, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.