Ligue 2 · Matchweek 22
Pau
PAU
Red Star
RED
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pau41%
Draw28%
Red Star31%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.19
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–08.8%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession53%
33%Territory37%
24%From set plays17%
0.15Chance quality0.06
7.8%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pau, 2 for Red Star. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Red Star
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.