Ligue 2 · Matchweek 21
Dunkerque
DUN
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dunkerque41%
Draw24%
Pau35%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.60
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Dunkerque will have the ball; Pau will not mind.
56%Possession45%
31%Territory33%
30%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.15
7.7%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dunkerque, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 99 matches, not the full season.