Ligue 2 · Matchweek 21
Dunkerque
DUN
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dunkerque37%
Draw25%
Pau39%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.70
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Pau get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession41%
29%Territory27%
7%From set plays34%
0.07Chance quality0.13
7.5%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dunkerque, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.