Ligue 2 · Matchweek 20
Sochaux
SOC
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sochaux27%
Draw24%
Pau49%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.80
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession45%
30%Territory33%
15%From set plays24%
0.05Chance quality0.15
6.2%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sochaux, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 99 matches, not the full season.