Ligue 2 · Matchweek 17
Pau
PAU
Reims
REI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pau44%
Draw23%
Reims32%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.66
Over 2.5
68%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession46%
27%Territory29%
34%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.15
8.1%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pau, 3 for Reims. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.