Ligue 2 · Matchweek 17
Pau
PAU
Reims
REI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pau43%
Draw25%
Reims32%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.45
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
45%Possession51%
33%Territory27%
24%From set plays21%
0.15Chance quality0.10
7.8%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pau, 2 for Reims. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.