Ligue 2 · Matchweek 14
Boulogne
BOU
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Boulogne35%
Draw27%
Pau38%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.46
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession41%
30%Territory27%
22%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.13
4.0%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Boulogne, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.