Ligue 2 · Matchweek 14
Boulogne
BOU
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Boulogne40%
Draw29%
Pau31%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.13
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–09.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession45%
37%Territory33%
31%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.15
7.6%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Boulogne, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.