Ligue 2 · Matchweek 13
Red Star
RED
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Red Star42%
Draw28%
Pau30%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.16
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
53%Possession45%
37%Territory33%
17%From set plays24%
0.06Chance quality0.15
5.2%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Red Star, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Red Star
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 21 of 97 matches, not the full season.