Ligue 2 · Matchweek 12
Pau
PAU
Nantes
NAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pau54%
Draw24%
Nantes22%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.11
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–06.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession47%
33%Territory34%
24%From set plays31%
0.15Chance quality0.11
7.8%Directness6.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pau, 3 for Nantes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 22 of 97 matches, not the full season.