Ligue 2 · Matchweek 11
Metz
MET
Pau
PAU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Metz34%
Draw25%
Pau41%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.69
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Metz will have the ball; Pau will not mind.
52%Possession41%
29%Territory27%
24%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.13
9.7%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Metz, 3 for Pau. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.