Club Football Intelligence

Ligue 2 · Matchweek 11

Sat, 31 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Guingamp

GUI

19:00 UTC

Saint-Étienne

SAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Guingamp33%

Draw23%

Saint-Étienne43%

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.93

Over 2.5

69%

Both to score

71%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–19.0%
1–28.4%
2–17.3%
2–27.2%
0–15.6%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Guingamp get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

46%Possession52%

30%Territory36%

30%From set plays11%

0.16Chance quality0.13

6.8%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Guingamp, 3 for Saint-Étienne. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Guingamp

Donatien GomisDF2G 1A 1.00/90
Teddy AverlantMF0G 2A 0.78/90
Erwin KoffiDF0G 1A 0.45/90

Saint-Étienne

Augustine BoakyeFW2G 0A 1.03/90
Zuriko DavitashviliFW0G 2A 1.01/90
Irvin CardonaFW0G 1A 0.56/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.