Ligue 2 · Matchweek 7
Pau
PAU
Dunkerque
DUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pau52%
Draw23%
Dunkerque25%
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.38
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–06.8%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Pau get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession41%
27%Territory29%
34%From set plays7%
0.13Chance quality0.07
8.1%Directness7.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pau, 3 for Dunkerque. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 24 of 54 matches, not the full season.