Ligue 1 · Matchweek 7
Troyes
TRO
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Troyes23%
Draw22%
Lens55%
Expected goals
1.39 – 2.14
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–16.9%
- 0–26.8%
- 1–36.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lens will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
38%Possession51%
46%Territory38%
40%From set plays23%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.7%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.