Ligue 1 · Matchweek 7
Lille
LIL
Brest
BRS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille51%
Draw25%
Brest24%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.16
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brest get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession45%
31%Territory35%
4%From set plays33%
0.13Chance quality0.11
4.6%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Brest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.