Premier League · Matchweek 24
Fulham
FUL
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fulham28%
Draw27%
Man City45%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.56
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession65%
39%Territory49%
25%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.12
3.6%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fulham, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.