Premier League · Matchweek 23
Newcastle United
NEW
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle31%
Draw26%
Brighton43%
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.60
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–07.4%
- 2–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brighton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession53%
46%Territory35%
16%From set plays40%
0.09Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Brighton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.