Club Football Intelligence

Premier League · Matchweek 22

Sat, 23 Jan, 15:00 UTC

Fulham

FUL

15:00 UTC

Aston Villa

AVL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fulham48%

Draw27%

Aston Villa25%

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.05

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%
1–012.2%
2–19.3%
0–08.8%
2–08.5%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Fulham will have the ball; Aston Villa will not mind.

65%Possession44%

39%Territory32%

25%From set plays22%

0.09Chance quality0.10

3.6%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fulham, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Fulham

Sander BergeMF0G 1A 0.43/90
Oscar BobbFW1G 0A 0.38/90
Joshua KingMF0G 1A 0.38/90

Aston Villa

Nicolas JacksonFW3G 0A 1.03/90
Johan ManzambiMF1G 1A 0.88/90
João GomesMF0G 1A 0.51/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.