Premier League · Matchweek 21
Brentford
BRE
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brentford33%
Draw27%
Brighton40%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.46
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession53%
35%Territory35%
27%From set plays40%
0.09Chance quality0.11
6.4%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brentford, 3 for Brighton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.