Premier League · Matchweek 20
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brighton41%
Draw26%
Bournemouth33%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.41
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.7%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brighton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession49%
35%Territory39%
40%From set plays10%
0.11Chance quality0.16
7.2%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brighton, 3 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Brighton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.