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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 19

Brighton & Hove Albion

BHA

Manchester United

MUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Brighton60%
Draw22%
Man United19%

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.13

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.9%
  • 1–19.6%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 2–08.8%
  • 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Brighton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

53%Possession48%
35%Territory39%
40%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.08
7.2%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brighton, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.