Premier League · Matchweek 18
Fulham
FUL
Arsenal
ARS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fulham24%
Draw31%
Arsenal45%
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.26
Over 2.5
35%
Both to score
42%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.7%
- 0–013.6%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–29.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession59%
39%Territory48%
25%From set plays36%
0.09Chance quality0.11
3.6%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fulham, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 89 matches, not the full season.