Premier League · Matchweek 18
Fulham
FUL
Arsenal
ARS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fulham18%
Draw26%
Arsenal57%
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.65
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–09.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession57%
39%Territory49%
22%From set plays22%
0.09Chance quality0.15
3.7%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fulham, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.