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Premier League · Matchweek 13

AFC Bournemouth

AFC

Brighton & Hove Albion

BHA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bournemouth41%
Draw24%
Brighton35%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.60

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1110.2%
  • 218.5%
  • 127.7%
  • 227.0%
  • 106.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Brighton will have the ball; Bournemouth will not mind.

53%Possession70%
41%Territory44%
30%From set plays29%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.2%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bournemouth, 3 for Brighton. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.