Premier League · Matchweek 13
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth45%
Draw25%
Brighton29%
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.33
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.1%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brighton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
49%Possession53%
39%Territory35%
10%From set plays40%
0.16Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bournemouth, 3 for Brighton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.