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Premier League · Matchweek 12

Fulham

FUL

AFC Bournemouth

AFC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fulham35%
Draw26%
Bournemouth39%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.51

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.6%
  • 128.5%
  • 018.3%
  • 218.0%
  • 107.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession53%
39%Territory41%
22%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.10
3.7%Directness5.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fulham, 3 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.