Premier League · Matchweek 12
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Newcastle United
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brighton56%
Draw23%
Newcastle21%
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.12
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brighton get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
53%Possession55%
35%Territory46%
40%From set plays16%
0.11Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brighton, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Brighton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.