Premier League · Matchweek 11
Manchester City
MCI
Fulham
FUL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City57%
Draw24%
Fulham19%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.02
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.1%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession65%
49%Territory39%
20%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Fulham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.