Premier League · Matchweek 10
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Brentford
BRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brighton52%
Draw25%
Brentford23%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.10
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 0–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession47%
35%Territory35%
40%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brighton, 3 for Brentford. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Brighton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.