Premier League · Matchweek 9
Aston Villa
AVL
Fulham
FUL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa41%
Draw28%
Fulham31%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.20
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Fulham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
56%Possession56%
47%Territory39%
7%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Fulham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.