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Premier League · Matchweek 9

Aston Villa

AVL

Fulham

FUL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aston Villa41%
Draw28%
Fulham31%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.20

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.6%
  • 1010.8%
  • 019.1%
  • 218.7%
  • 008.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Fulham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

56%Possession56%
47%Territory39%
7%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Fulham. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.