Premier League · Matchweek 7
Newcastle United
NEW
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle45%
Draw27%
Aston Villa28%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.15
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Newcastle get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession56%
34%Territory47%
38%From set plays7%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.0%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Aston Villa
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.