Premier League · Matchweek 5
Fulham
FUL
Manchester United
MUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Fulham31%
Draw25%
Man United43%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.67
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession57%
39%Territory48%
22%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.09
3.7%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fulham, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.