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Premier League · Matchweek 5

Fulham

FUL

Manchester United

MUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fulham31%
Draw25%
Man United43%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.67

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.1%
  • 129.0%
  • 018.3%
  • 217.4%
  • 106.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession57%
39%Territory48%
22%From set plays11%
0.09Chance quality0.09
3.7%Directness3.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fulham, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.