Premier League · Matchweek 5
Brighton & Hove Albion
BHA
Arsenal
ARS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brighton25%
Draw26%
Arsenal48%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.60
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brighton will have the ball; Arsenal will not mind.
70%Possession57%
44%Territory49%
29%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.15
4.6%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brighton, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Brighton
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.