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Premier League · Matchweek 5

Brighton & Hove Albion

BHA

Arsenal

ARS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Brighton25%
Draw26%
Arsenal48%

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.60

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.9%
  • 0111.1%
  • 129.5%
  • 028.1%
  • 007.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Brighton will have the ball; Arsenal will not mind.

70%Possession57%
44%Territory49%
29%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.15
4.6%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brighton, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.