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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 25

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

Cambuur

CAM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam42%
Draw27%
Cambuur31%

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.23

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.4%
  • 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Cambuur get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

44%Possession45%
39%Territory31%
7%From set plays31%
0.19Chance quality0.12
6.4%Directness6.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for Cambuur. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.