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Eredivisie · Matchweek 19

Cambuur

CAM

Willem II

WIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Cambuur46%
Draw27%
Willem II27%

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.14

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.1%
  • 1011.0%
  • 219.3%
  • 017.9%
  • 007.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

43%Possession40%
35%Territory35%
18%From set plays7%
0.13Chance quality0.13
6.6%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cambuur, 4 for Willem II. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.