Eredivisie · Matchweek 16
Ajax
AJA
Cambuur
CAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax51%
Draw26%
Cambuur23%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.02
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession45%
39%Territory31%
29%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.7%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ajax, 3 for Cambuur. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.