Eredivisie · Matchweek 11
SC Heerenveen
SCH
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
SC Heerenveen43%
Draw28%
NEC Nijmegen30%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.18
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession61%
45%Territory42%
24%From set plays17%
0.10Chance quality0.14
4.9%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for SC Heerenveen, 4 for NEC Nijmegen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.