Serie A · Matchweek 21
Como
COM
Napoli
NAP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Como51%
Draw27%
Napoli22%
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.93
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
62%Possession57%
48%Territory37%
23%From set plays28%
0.12Chance quality0.10
3.2%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Como, 4 for Napoli.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Napoli
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.