Serie A · Matchweek 19
Como
COM
Lazio
LAZ
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Como49%
Draw29%
Lazio22%
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.89
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
62%Possession61%
48%Territory49%
23%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.12
3.2%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Como, 4 for Lazio.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.