Serie A · Matchweek 16
Milan
MIL
Como
COM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan31%
Draw28%
Como41%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.42
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession62%
31%Territory48%
24%From set plays23%
0.18Chance quality0.12
4.3%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Milan, 4 for Como.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 100 matches, not the full season.