Serie A · Matchweek 16
Milan
MIL
Como
COM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Milan32%
Draw28%
Como41%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.44
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession61%
36%Territory52%
22%From set plays19%
0.08Chance quality0.08
3.9%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Milan, 3 for Como. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.