Serie A · Matchweek 14
Monza
MON
Como
COM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monza20%
Draw24%
Como56%
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.87
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–36.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession61%
45%Territory52%
16%From set plays19%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.3%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monza, 3 for Como. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.