Serie A · Matchweek 13
Como
COM
Juventus
JUV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Como41%
Draw29%
Juventus31%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.15
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession55%
52%Territory58%
19%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.08
3.5%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Como, 3 for Juventus. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.