Serie A · Matchweek 10
Como
COM
Venezia
VEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Como76%
Draw15%
Venezia8%
Expected goals
2.56 – 0.79
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-1.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–011.8%
- 3–09.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession55%
52%Territory40%
19%From set plays18%
0.08Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Como, 3 for Venezia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.