Serie A · Matchweek 6
Como
COM
Roma
ROM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Como40%
Draw28%
Roma33%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.26
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
61%Possession59%
52%Territory48%
19%From set plays8%
0.08Chance quality0.14
3.5%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Como, 3 for Roma. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 40 matches, not the full season.