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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 30

Kalmar FF

KAL

AIK

AIK

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kalmar FF51%
Draw24%
AIK25%

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.22

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–09.3%
  • 2–07.7%
  • 1–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession49%
41%Territory35%
15%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.12
5.0%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Kalmar FF, 3 for AIK. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 30 of 213 matches, not the full season.