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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 27

Djurgården

DJU

Degerfors

DEG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Djurgården65%
Draw22%
Degerfors13%

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.72

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

44%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–014.5%
  • 2–013.0%
  • 1–19.9%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Degerfors get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

54%Possession49%
44%Territory40%
4%From set plays26%
0.15Chance quality0.07
3.9%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Djurgården, 3 for Degerfors. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.