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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 24

Västerås SK

VST

Mjällby

MJL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Västerås SK51%
Draw25%
Mjällby24%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.15

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–010.2%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–08.2%
  • 0–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mjällby get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

48%Possession42%
41%Territory36%
38%From set plays57%
0.09Chance quality0.09
6.0%Directness6.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Västerås SK, 5 for Mjällby. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.