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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Allsvenskan · Matchweek 23

Mjällby

MJL

Degerfors

DEG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mjällby36%
Draw29%
Degerfors34%

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.21

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.0%
  • 0–110.5%
  • 0–09.9%
  • 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mjällby get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

42%Possession49%
36%Territory40%
57%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.07
6.6%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Mjällby, 3 for Degerfors. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 168 matches, not the full season.